Learn to do by doing.

Updates from August, 2009 Toggle Comment Threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

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  James 9:12 am on August 14, 2009 Permalink
  Tags: actuarial tables, Benjamin Gompertz, Gompertz Law, life ( 2 ), mortality, priorities, projections, urgency   

  The Urgency of Life and Gompertz Law of Human Mortality 

  What do you think are the odds that you will die during the next year? Try to put a number to it — 1 in 100? 1 in 10,000? Whatever it is, it will be twice as large 8 years from now.

  This startling fact was first noticed by the British actuary Benjamin Gompertz in 1825 and is now called the “Gompertz Law of human mortality.” Your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years. For me, a 25-year-old American, the probability of dying during the next year is a fairly miniscule 0.03% — about 1 in 3,000. When I’m 33 it will be about 1 in 1,500, when I’m 42 it will be about 1 in 750, and so on. By the time I reach age 100 (and I do plan on it) the probability of living to 101 will only be about 50%. This is seriously fast growth — my mortality rate is increasing exponentially with age.

  Just in case you ever needed motivation to start doing the most important things in your life right now.

  From Gravity and Levity.
   
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  James 9:07 am on August 4, 2009 Permalink  

  The Hot Waitress Index as Economic Indicator 

  To be actually useful, of course, the Hot Waitress Index must be a leading indicator, and there is good reason to believe that it is. Employment is generally thought to lag behind economic recovery, which is to say that jobless rates remain elevated, and even climb, after a recession has technically ended. But hotness occupies a privileged place in the employment picture. As a commodity that’s fairly cheap, historically effective as a marketing tool, and available on a freelance basis, hotness will likely be back in demand long before your average Michigan autoworker is. Or the rest of us, for that matter.

  What the hotness of your waitress says about the economy: Hot Waitress Economic Index.